(Real) Costs of Marcellus Shale in Upstate NY
At MIT, I’m enrolled in a course titled, Opportunities in Clean Hydrocarbons, which focuses on unpacking the issues — economic, technological, political, entrepreneurial, and environmental — associated with the opportunity in natural gas following the “discovery” of shale gas.
The term that I use, discovery, is a misnomer for a number of reasons. Natural gas has been known to exist in the shales for years. And the techniques used to extract the gas, horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracking, are also part of the standard set of tools used in the oil and gas industry.
However, no one in the industry believed these tools could be used to extract unconventional gas from the shales until recently. George Mitchell, a old-school wildcatter from Texas, with tenacity and entrepreneurial drive, made unconventional gas production from the Barnett Shale in Texas a reality. (See video on how hydro-fracking and horizontal drilling made this possible)
The “discovery” shook the natural gas community because it dramatically increased the amount of recoverable gas in the US. PCG numbers for US recoverable gas resources in 2009, following a reassessment that incorporated the advances in shale production techniques, increased +43% to 2,082 TCF of gas from its 2006 figures. This increase can help natural gas to bridge the gap between today’s “dirty” generating technologies to cleaner and renewable sources that will be used in the future.
One of the largest potential shale plays is the Marcellus Shale — actually three shales stacked vertically, Marcellus, Devonian, and Utica Shale — is located in the Appalachian area in Upstate New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.
… and that’s when the course ceased to be solely an academic exercise.
In my neighborhood in Ithaca, NY, more and more “no fracking” signs have been appearing in front of homes and in community buildings to protest the development of shale gas in the region. Ithaca is no stranger to protests. Ithaca is a small progressive town, similar in many respects to Berkeley CA, that lies in the picturesque farmlands of upstate NY. For nearly ten years, though not continuously, I’ve found upstate NY to be my home. So, I was naturally appalled by the realization of just how close the drilling was to be.
Below is map of of the counties surrounding Ithaca with an overlay of lands (brown) where surface rights have been granted for natural gas exploration. (Map from Marcellus Accountability Project, Tompkins County) 69% of the land in Groton county, 55% on Caroline, and 42% in Lansing have been leased already. Aside from a few natural preserves, most of the lands, especially those farther away from Ithaca, are already poised to be exploited for the precious resources below ground.
From a economic perspective, it’s may be difficult to argue against developing shale in Upstate New York. These areas have been devoid of major economic activity for sometime, and attempts to stimulate economic development, such as outsourcing IT jobs to upstate NY, haven’t gained much traction even in progressive towns with links to the city like Ithaca. In face of the deep pockets of oil and gas companies, the consciences of any reasonable landowner is no match.
There are, of course, health and environmental risks. I am leagues away from being a fervent member of the Sierra Club, but I do have reservations about the known (and unknown) risks of drilling. Where will toxic fracking fluids go after they’ve past their useful lives? Propylene-lined lagoons can leak and mobile storage in tanks can as well. Will the underground aquifers still be safe for drinking? Producers seem to think so. But what about the second and third order effects that have yet to be discovered. Will there still be a place for the region’s organic and sustainable agriculture?
It’s hard to imagine that the picturesque rural horizon of upstate NY, marked by freely flowing grassy hills undulating along the skyline, will soon be replaced by uniform tracts of land having gas wellheads optimally placed 40 acres apart with the occasional red flares tinting the sky.
Upstate New York Today…
Upstate NY tomorrow? (See here for more pictures of shale gas fields)…
